Life is full of twist and turns, and so is NASCAR this week as the Cup Series heads to Sonoma Raceway in California.
It's been a while since stock car's premier series was on a road course, all the way back to Sunday, March 24 to be exact when William Byron headed to Victory Lane at the Circuit of the Americas.
Some big news landed this week for Byron's Hendrick Motorsports teammate Kyle Larson, who was granted his long-awaited waiver for missing the rain-shortened Coca-Cola 600 earlier this month. Larson, instead, ran the rain-delayed Indianapolis 500 in an attempt to do the Memorial Day Double.
Larson, however, is not the favorite entering Wine Country. That would be Martin Truex Jr., who won here a year ago and is just one victory shy of matching Jeff Gordon for the all-time record at Sonoma with five.
Let's take a look at the odds board, some bets that we like and a little DFS lineup advice.
NASCAR odds for Sonoma
(Odds according to Hard Rock Bet)
+575: Martin Truex Jr.
+750: Kyle Larson
+800: Ty Gibbs, Christopher Bell, William Byron
+850: Chase Elliott
+900: Tyler Reddick
+1300: AJ Allmendinger
+1400: Chris Buescher
+1500: Michael McDowell
+2000: Denny Hamlin
+2250: Austin Cindric
+2500: Kyle Busch, Ryan Blaney, Ross Chastain
+3000: Will Brown
+4000: Joey Logano
+5000: Alex Bowman
+6000: Cam Waters
+10000: Brad Keselowski, Carson Hocevar, Chase Briscoe, Todd Gilliland, Justin Haley
+20000: Bubba Wallace
+25000: Austin Dillon
+50000: Zane Smith, Josh Berry, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Erik Jones, John Hunter Nemechek, Corey LaJoie, Ryan Preece, Noah Gragson
+100000: Daniel Hemric, Kaz Grala, Harrison Burton
NASCAR best bets for Sonoma
Ryan: Looking at Group 5 featuring Brown, Logano, Waters and Bowman. Would it surprise you to know that since 2021, Sonoma is Logano's fifth-best track in terms of average finish (eighth)? He has two top fives in his last three starts and while Brown and Waters bring plenty of road-course expertise from Supercars, and also while Bowman hasn't been terrible in Wine Country, I'll take a hungry, experienced Logano at +260 to win this group.
Ken: Austin Cindric is coming off a gifted win and is really good on road courses. You just read about Logano above. And Ryan Blaney should be driving angry this week. Having said all that, the Penske team is listed fourth in team odds, at +900. Plenty of others could trip us up here, but at that price, it's worth the shot.
Top 10
Ryan: Generally speaking, I'm looking for anyone at plus odds here and this week, Chastain (+120) qualifies despite also having an average finish of eighth here since 2021 and having finished in the top 10 in each of the last three races at Sonoma.
Ken: Is Brad Keselowski any good at Sonoma? Only on occasion. But is he +425-for-a-top-10 bad? Probably not. I give more weight to current momentum than past Sonoma history.
Top 5
Ryan: A ton of good value to find here, but anytime I see Larson at plus odds, it kind of just feels like cheating the system. He's led more laps here than anyone over the last three years with a win in there for good measure. It's not a long shot by any means, but at +135 you'll more than double up and that's good enough for me.
Ken: Maybe I'm putting too much stock in the Shane van Gisbergen effect, but I think one of the two Aussie ringers will sneak in there. Cam Waters is in an RFK car and those cats are on it right now. He's also +900 for a top five. That's where I'm looking and looking hard.
Which driver to fade at Sonoma?
Ryan: I'm going to go one better and give you a twofer — I'm fading on Byron and Bell. While both have plenty of road-course acumen, their records at Sonoma just aren't there. Each has just one top-10 finish, a ninth for both, and in a combined eight starts, Byron and Bell have finished 19th or worse five times.
Ken: I'm going right to the top and ignoring Truex. As with Keselowski and my top-10 choice, I'm going more with recent meh over track record with Truex. But then again, isn't picking someone not to win so much easier than the alternative?
Who will win at Sonoma?
Ryan: I really like the way Fords have been running as of late and there's a couple appealing blue ovals here, but give me Chris Buescher at +1400 to finally break through for his first win of the season. Buescher is second among all drivers in average finish at Sonoma over the past three years at 7.3.
Ken: Call me crazy ... well, actually, only semi-crazy, because Cindric is a good road-racer. He was a third-place car last week but won. Give him a third-place car this week, with his road skills, and you have a winner. Now, who had Austin Cindric winning two straight races this year?
NASCAR DFS lineup advice
Chase Elliott ($9,300): Carries the best average finish in the Gen-7 car here, finishing second, eighth and fifth. He's done everything but win here, maybe this week is the week.
Chris Buescher ($8,600): Second on the average-finish list, seven of his top 10 tracks are road courses. He's as reliable as anyone in the field.
Michael McDowell ($8,500): And right behind Buescher may be McDowell, the winner at Indy Road Course last year. McDowell has finished third and seventh the last two years at Sonoma.
Ross Chastain ($8,300): Looking for a big day and an uptick in speed from Trackhouse Racing this week. Chastain rides three straight top 10s at Sonoma into Sunday.
Daniel Suarez ($8,000): For value, you could do worse than the 2022 winner here. While he's never quite replicated that performance, Suarez has finished inside the top 20 in five of his six starts at Sonoma.
Joey Logano ($7,300): Again, sneaky good track for Logano and as the throw in that rounds out your lineup, he's quite a value.
This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: NASCAR odds, best bets, picks, predictions, DFS lineup for Sonoma
